The following is from an email newsletter from the Economist magazine:
Analysts expect policymakers at Brazil’s central bank meeting on Wednesday to keep the country’s key interest rate unchanged at 13.75%. The worst of Brazil’s economic woes seem to be over. Having risen steadily since June 2020, monthly inflation fell in July and August. GDP grew by 1.2% in the second quarter compared with the first. The unemployment rate, which reached nearly 15% in 2021, has fallen to just above 9%.
President Jair Bolsonaro, who is seeking re-election on October 2nd, claims that Brazil has emerged from the pandemic with a “thriving economy”. But that may be premature. Economists polled by the central bank expect the economy to grow by 2.7% in 2022, but by just 0.5% in 2023, as emergency spending fades away. Either way, Mr Bolsonaro’s boasts do not seem to have borne political fruit. Polls find the president trailing the opposition candidate and former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, by 12 pThe ercentage points.